Do lens prices generally go up or down...

[stitchbug]

when a new lens comes out?
Like the Canon 70-200 2.8 IS -II is coming in February.
Any guesses on whether the original will go up or down in price?

[sybren]

It'll probably go down.

I think that when you look at lens (or body) prices in general, they more or less stay the same. You just get better gear for the price.

[sk66]

I would say that depends....Sometimes the "improved version" isn't as good as the original. But usually, being a model behind is a great value.

[inkista]

Usually, but not always. Once a lens is discontinued, it depends on the usual supply & demand to set the price. Most lenses will go down, because the newer version will be more desirable; it'll be sharper, or have IS or USM added over the older version.

Take, for example, the 20-35 f/2.8L, which goes for around $500 or $600 bucks. It got replaced by the 17-35 f/2.8L USM, which goes for around $700 to $900 bucks. Which got replaced by the 16-35 f/2.8L USM, which goes for around $1200-$1300 bucks, which of course, got replaced by the 16-35 f/2.8L USM II, which now sells new for $1500.

But if the lens is a rarity and its replacement isn't an improvement, it can command "collectors' prices" when it becomes discontinued.

The EF 50 f/1.0L USM goes for around $4500, these days, on the used market. The original price on the 50/1.0L when it was new was (I think) about $2500. The current 50/1.2L is about $1500 new.

[OsmosisStudios]

If we look at Nikon lenses, we can see this too. The 50 f/1.2 NOCT, 28mm f/1.4 and a few others have gotten HIGHER in price than they were new. A 28mm f/1.4 recently sold on eBay for something like 18k.

Even newer lenses can do this: with the whole kerfuffle with the focal length at MFD with the 70-200 f/2.8VRii, the older VRi version has actually started going up in price.